Oil, USD Strength and Fragile Risk Sentiment
Markets head into the session caught between geopolitical-driven oil strength and resilient US growth signals, creating a clear divergence across asset classes. continues to push higher on Middle East tensions, while equities—particularly outside the US—are showing signs of strain.
At the same time, the is firming, not purely on rates, but increasingly on risk dynamics and relative macro resilience. This is a key shift. Historically, oil spikes could weigh on the dollar, but in the current regime, the relationship has flipped.
USD: Oil Rally Now USD-Supportive
The delivered what markets expected on the surface—but the details matter. The 8–4 vote split, with dissent both for and against easing bias, introduces policy uncertainty rather than clarity. This complicates any near-term dovish pivot narrative.
More importantly, the…
