Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Sunday’s second round of the presidential election in Brazil, defeating right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro with approx. 52% to 48% of the vote, with a margin of over 4 million votes. This is a complete reversal of voter sentiment; Lula lost the first round on October 4, becoming the first candidate since 1989 who, despite losing in the first round, ultimately won the presidency. The initial market reaction is sharp: the Bovespa index ETF traded in Tokyo fell nearly 15% in Asian trading, signaling that investors were positioned for a Bolsonaro victory.
Key Facts
- Election result: Lula wins a fourth term (though not consecutive), defeating Bolsonaro with almost all votes counted. The market priced in higher chances for Bolsonaro after the first round, so the reversal of the result in the second round surprised investors.
