Identifying the reasons why the stock market rises or falls is challenging, if not impossible, but the slide in has surely bees a non-trivial factor in lifting equities this year. A key question for 2026: Will the tailwind continue?
Consider the , perhaps the world’s most important rate, given its influence over a wide range of lending activity. Although it’s the 10-year yield has had a volatile ride at times in 2025, looking back over the year reminds that the general trend has been down.
Despite various threats, from tariff-related inflation to concerns related to the rise of the US government’s budget deficit, the 10-year yield looks set to end 2025 well below where it started the year: 4.14% on Friday, Dec. 19, down from a peak of roughly 4.80% at one point in January. Expectations for a softer economy are helping drive the trend.
Dovish Fed policy has also helped….
