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The International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 outlook shows a world economy that is holding steady overall but pulling apart underneath: Global growth is expected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 before picking up to 3.4 percent in 2027. That average hides big disparities between regions of the world; the economies of much of the Gulf will contract, while the economies of India, much of East Africa and parts of Southeast Asia will grow at 6 percent or more. The main reason for the lower global figure is the war in the Middle East, which disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz beginning in March and hit the Gulf’s oil economies hard. Saudi Arabia’s economy is thus expected to shrink 3.3 percent this year before bouncing back with 7.9 percent growth in 2027.
Prices tell a similar story:…
