Wall Street sees an oil shock and asks what it means for inflation, the Fed, and energy stocks. Households see an oil shock and ask a very different question: How do we make this month’s math work?
That is the analytic failure at the center of this moment.
The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is actively draining the American wallet. With crude surging back above $100 a barrel and the national average for gasoline recently topping $4 per gallon, the International Monetary Fund issued a clear-eyed assessment at its spring meetings. The IMF noted that the energy shock has interrupted the steady growth trajectory, downgrading U.S. output projections and pointing out that the crisis will measurably erode consumer purchasing power.
Despite this, official commentary often describes the period of elevated prices as “temporary.” But “temporary” is a sovereign…
