NEW YORK (AP) — A soldier betting on an operation to oust Venezuela’s leader. Politicians gambling on their own elections. Massive bets on the president announcing a ceasefire with Iran right before he actually did.
Are prediction markets safe places for news junkies to bet on events — or dens of insider trading?
A lot is at stake as states vow to heavily regulate or even ban what they view as illegal gambling operations. Even the Trump family could be impacted as it lays plans to open its own prediction market.
Just how fair prediction markets are now depends partly on the trading venue. They all have different internal policies and different rules, though recent headlines suggest they are all going through adolescent growing pains — and the adults are worried.
Part of the problem is no one on the outside can tell who exactly is placing the winning bets, fueling suspicion some…
