As the world approaches 2026, uncertainty has become a defining feature of global affairs. Unlike previous eras, today’s unpredictability stems not only from cyclical economic swings or traditional political rivalries but from a combination of technological disruption, shifting geopolitical alliances, and unexpected crises that redefine the global landscape. These developments-often called “black swan” events-are highly improbable but have disproportionate consequences, reshaping economies, political structures, and international norms in ways that are hard to anticipate.
Two interrelated uncertainties will shape the next phase of global affairs. First, the geopolitical context remains volatile and may even deteriorate further. The war in Ukraine continues to dominate international attention, but instability extends far beyond Eastern Europe. In the…
