The global economy has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past two decades, driven not least by the 2008 global financial crisis, the United Kingdom’s 2016 vote to leave the European Union, and the escalating rivalry between the United States and China. The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook, published this past April, shows how such shocks have affected the fortunes of emerging and advanced economies.
When then-Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill coined the term BRIC in 2001, the four emerging-market economies to which he referred—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—were viewed as having enormous growth potential. Over the past quarter-century, however, progress has been highly uneven.
Start with the largest emerging economy. China’s relative economic power—measured by its GDP in current prices, relative to US GDP—peaked at 76.6% in…
