Highlights:
Canada’s economy is on track to rebound in Q2, driven by resilient household spending, recovering business investment and expanding net trade. Growth is expected to continue over the second half of 2026 with CUSMA exemptions still protecting most Canadian exports from U.S. tariffs.
The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on hold in 2026. Uncertainties around trade and energy prices are persisting but recent developments—broadly easing energy price growth and firming economic growth—have evolve broadly as expected, reaffirming the BoC’s steady stance.
U.S. productivity growth has continued to surprise on the upside. We’ve raised our assumptions for GDP growth through the forecast horizon to 2027, driven by higher trend productivity growth rather than expected job growth. We now expect the economy will expand 2.2% in both…
