A difference-in-difference, quasi-experimental design was used to estimate a “treatment effect” (PEPFAR), based on comparison to a control group (the counterfactual). The difference-in-difference design compares the before and after change in outcomes for the treatment group to the before and after change in outcomes for the comparison group. The outcomes of interest, their definitions and sources are listed in Table 1. Baseline variables are listed in Table 2. The panel data set of 157 low- and middle- income countries used in the prior analysis, covering 1990 to 2018, was updated to include data through 2022. COVID-related funding was not included. All values were adjusted to constant 2022 dollars.
The PEPFAR group included 90 countries that had received PEPFAR support over the period. The comparison group included 67 low- and middle- income countries that had not…
