(July 9): The Trump administration’s curbs on immigration and ramped-up deportations will lower US economic growth by almost a full percentage point this year, according to a study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The drastic drop in immigrants across the southern border and increased efforts to deport more foreign-born workers could subtract about 0.8 percentage point from gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025, according to an analysis by economists including Pia Orrenius.
The researchers — who acknowledged that the limited availability of historical data makes their findings highly uncertain — examined how five different decreased immigration scenarios would impact GDP and inflation. They found the biggest hit would be to growth, with a slight increase to inflation this year from the new policies.
Immigration at the US-Mexico border dropped sharply last year and…
