The U.S. economy is experiencing a noticeable slowdown in mid-2025, with sluggish domestic demand growth, muted job gains, and new tariff actions poised to impact both inflation and overall economic momentum, according to a recent analysis from UBS Global Research.
The US Economics Weekly note from the Swiss bank noted real GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 1.2% in the first half of 2025, a significant step down from the more robust pace observed in 2023 and early 2024. Quarter-over-quarter growth figures point to a sequential weakening, the team led by economist Jonathan Pingle added, particularly in domestic demand, which has dropped from above 3% last year to around 1% in recent quarters.
Labor demand is responding in kind. Monthly nonfarm payroll growth has slowed sharply, with July seeing an increase of only 73,000 jobs—well below expectations and accompanied by…
