Stability of the global economy amid a mosaic of risks
The latest update of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook highlights stable growth expectations for the global economy (GDP +3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027). Technological dynamism, particularly investment related to AI, continues to sustain economic activity, especially in the US, offsetting the adverse effects of persistent trade tensions and high geopolitical uncertainty. In this environment, the IMF anticipates a gradual slowdown in international trade (+2.6% in 2026 vs. 4.1% in 2025), and economic activity is showing uneven dynamics. While the US is expected to continue to grow above 2.0% thanks to investment in technology and fiscal stimuli, Europe’s forecasts are constrained by structural obstacles and a certain fiscal consolidation (with the notable exception of the deployment of the German fiscal plan). Among emerging…
