Jul 8, 2026
A new briefing from Oxford Economics indicates that the second half of the year depends on a fragile sequence of events, with the stability of the US-Iran peace agreement acting as the decisive factor. The consultancy stated that the durability of the deal will determine whether the global economy benefits from an energy-driven reduction in inflation or faces a second oil shock. Oxford Economics’ chief global economist described the agreement as the key domino that will decide whether other risks are amplified or dampened.
The firm expects the global economy to pick up pace, forecasting annualized growth of 3.1% in the second half compared to an estimated 1.6% in the first half, driven mainly by cheaper oil boosting household incomes. However, the economist put the odds of reaching a lasting deal at a coin flip. If the truce holds,…
