In a new commentary, two deeply rooted assumptions in global demographic debates are challenged: that fertility will rebound as societies develop, and that “replacement-level fertility” is an ideal to be pursued. Drawing on the latest evidence, the authors show that neither view is supported by available data and argue that persistently low fertility can be sustainable and even economically desirable.
In their piece, published in Nature Human Behaviour, IIASA Distinguished Emeritus Research Scholar Wolfgang Lutz and IIASA Senior Researcher Guillaume Marois, who is also an associate professor at the Asian Demographic Research Institute of the Shanghai University, respond to political and public concern over declining birth rates in highly developed countries. While low fertility is increasingly framed as a crisis, associated with population ageing, labor shortages, and…
