The British government was right to describe the recent bout of market volatility in the UK as having been fuelled principally by “global factors” – in particular, a sharp rise in US bond yields. It was also right in touting how well UK markets have coped with the turmoil. But no one should downplay the additional challenges the UK economy will confront in the months ahead, the structural weaknesses that are compounding its vulnerability, or the policy action that is urgently needed.
The recent surge in US yields has three main causes: a string of data releases indicating that actual and potential economic growth are outpacing consensus estimates, higher-than-projected inflation (with a meaningful rise in consumers’ inflation expectations), and increased market sensitivity to the bond issuance that comes with large deficits and debt. Given that advanced economies compete for…
