The guest commentary below was written by written by Daniel Lacalle. This piece does not necessarily reflect the opinions of Hedgeye.
In the past six months, a chorus of analysts and commentators warned of an impending collapse of the US economy. Many predicted that persistent inflation, high interest rates, and ballooning government deficits would drag growth to a halt and trigger a recession.
However, the data tell a different story: the United States demonstrates economic strength, fiscal control, and improving inflation expectations.
Rising Growth Estimates Defy the Pessimists
At the start of 2025, forecasts painted a gloomy picture. The first quarter saw a contraction in GDP, with the US economy shrinking by 0.5%. However, this decline resulted from lower government spending and higher imports, while the private sector continued to strengthen. Soon afterward, the…
