Trump and Putin may be striding into the Elmendorf-Richardson base tonight under the midnight sun. Still, the FX market has been clear all week: the big moves in the greenback are being inked in economic data, not Alaska’s optics. Yesterday’s PPI print didn’t just come in hot — it set the Fed’s September cut narrative smouldering, forcing traders to scribble hawkish risk back into their playbooks. The result? A more balanced dollar risk profile, with Fed repricing tugging one way and geopolitics pulling — tentatively — the other.
The summit is being sold as a “feel-out” session, with Trump hinting that talks with Ukraine and European allies will follow, and even admitting there’s a one-in-four chance nothing comes of tonight’s handshake. That 25% “nothing-burger” scenario is ironically the most dollar-positive — a clean avoidance of risk-on…
