As has been the case over the last several years, we are entering another period likely to exacerbate the K-shaped dynamic that has come to define the US economy.
The macro outlook
Growth remains uneven, and capital continues to concentrate. But compared to the rest of the world (RoW), the US continues to have the most stable path forward.
From a steel perspective, this asymmetry is reinforced by the persistence of tariffs and protectionism. They remain deeply embedded in the policy landscape and continue to favor domestic mills.
Entering 2026, the base case is for above-trend growth in GDP (long-term trend is 1.7%). And the balance of risks tilts toward the upside – although the bell curve of risk is flattening.
Key points
Below are several assumptions that frame that macro outlook. Let’s touch on those first before we go into some steel-specific details:
• Economic…
