- Supply Constraints Intensifying: Major copper producers like BHP and Glencore are projecting flat production despite billions in investment, while mine closures in Australia due to high energy costs and permitting challenges create supply bottlenecks
- Structural Demand Growth: Global electrification, AI infrastructure expansion, and 6 billion people aspiring to developed-world lifestyles drive long-term copper demand, with deposits becoming deeper and lower grade
- Geographic Shift to South America: Capital flight from Australia to Argentina and Chile as companies like Glencore and BHP redirect $16+ billion in investments, despite social and permitting risks
- Price Divergence Opportunity: Copper has underperformed gold significantly over 25 years, creating a potential convergence trade as the copper/gold ratio suggests copper is historically cheap in real money terms
- Critical Mineral Status:…
