WASHINGTON – The US economy likely maintained a steady pace of growth in the second quarter, supported by stronger consumer spending and robust business investment in equipment tied to the buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The Commerce Department’s advance gross domestic product (GDP) report on July 30 is expected to show the economy largely weathering the Middle East conflict, in part thanks to bigger tax refunds in 2026, which provided a cushion for consumers against higher petrol prices stemming from the war.
But economists warned that the US-led war with Iran, now in its sixth month, posed a downside risk to growth in the second half of 2026.
“The US has been much more insulated from the economic fallout from the conflict in the Middle East than other parts of the world have been,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING. “The consumer…
