Americans are feeling increasingly downbeat about the economic outlook. Some Wall Street economists believe the US will enter a recession this year. But most economic data isn’t flashing red just yet, leaving a pressing question as to when the ominous sentiment showing up in surveys will actually translate to a hit to growth.
The turning point could come this summer, several economists told Yahoo Finance.
“We will likely see continued softness in the survey data before the hard data start to weaken around mid-to-late summer, at which point higher prices, weaker spending, and slower hiring could start to emerge in the official statistics,” Goldman Sachs US economist Emanuel Abecasis wrote in a note to clients.
In a wide-ranging analysis of 45 different economic indicators, Goldman Sachs found that economic data typically takes about four months to show “clear signs of…
