Tue, 03rd Oct 2023
- In line with EIU’s projections, data released on September 15th by China’s National Statistics Bureau (NBS) suggest that the economy has bottomed out.
- Year-on-year growth accelerated in August for retail sales (4.6%, from 2.5% in July) and industrial value-added (IVA; 4.5%, from 3.7%), although fixed-asset investment (FAI) in January-August (3.2%) slowed marginally from January-July (3.4%).
- The readings were in line with our expectations, and we retain our forecast of 5.2% real GDP growth for 2023. That said, building signs of structural stress in the economy have dampened our longer-term outlook, and we now expect headline growth to trend consistently below 5% over the remainder of the 2020s.
Service consumption remains the pillar of…
