Every session since September 24 has bottomed within about 25 pips of 1.3200, and Monday was the 13th. GBP/USD closed near 1.3210 after a climb to just above 1.3250, made before London opened, was given back as Brent rose above $107 a barrel. The Dollar Index reached its highest since April 2025 on the same move, so Monday’s slide had more to do with the Dollar than the Pound.

Four BoE hikes priced and the Pound near a three-month low

Bank of England (BoE) external member Mann said on Monday that UK inflation near 4% around the turn of the year could set off a wage-price drift. She added that services inflation will be hard to bring down without more hikes. Markets put the odds of a hike on November 5 near 90% and price the UK’s Bank Rate at 4.75% within a year, four quarter-point moves above its current 3.75%. That’s four hikes priced for an economy forecast to have shrunk in August.