After a quiet August in the US–Iran war with no major strikes by either side and improving commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the world was preparing for a relatively calm period in the region.
Futures contracts for a barrel of American-produced WTI crude oil fell to $82 in late August, while British-produced Brent crude traded as low as $88 in the same period. The consensus was that it was not in President Trump’s interest to escalate tensions, and thus push up gas prices for American consumers, before the midterm election.
Yet that is exactly what happened.
US forces bombed Iranian targets for the first time in over a month on 30 August. Iran has since escalated further, firing missiles at US Navy ships enforcing the blockade of Iranian ports, to which the US responded by blowing up Iranian oil tankers. Evidently, crude oil prices spiked in response…
