The dollar is back, and it brought receipts. Speculative net long positions on the US dollar have surged to their highest level since 2018, according to CFTC data as of mid-June 2026, marking the largest single-week increase in bullish bets over the same period.
The catalyst is a familiar story repackaged for 2026: US exceptionalism. Investors are piling into the thesis that the American economy will outpace the rest of the world, fueled by artificial intelligence tailwinds and growth metrics that make other developed economies look like they’re running in sand.
From worst start to full reversal
The dollar had its weakest opening to a year in roughly two decades. Through the early months of 2026, the greenback was dragging, weighed down by tariff uncertainties and fiscal constraints that carried over from 2025.
Between January and May 2026, positioning swung…
