A widening conflict in West Asia, volatile oil prices, the threat of El Nino and an increasingly fragmented global economy are casting a long shadow over the world’s growth outlook.
Yet, amid the turbulence, India believes it can still outrun the storm.
In its annual report released on Friday, the Reserve Bank of India painted a picture of a world entering a more dangerous economic phase in 2026-27 — one where geopolitics, not interest rates, has become the defining force shaping inflation, trade and capital flows.
“Geopolitical risk has re-emerged as the dominant drag on global growth in 2026,” the RBI said, warning that a prolonged or widening West Asia conflict could further darken the outlook for the global economy.
The central bank said the adverse impact of the conflict that broke out in late-February is already visible in forecasts for growth, inflation and trade. The…
