This holiday-shortened week could be a pivotal one for investors trying to gauge the outlook for Fed policymaking.
Highlights include a first estimate of Q4-2025 real GDP (Fri), December PCED inflation (Fri), February consumer sentiment (Fri), and the minutes from the January 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Wed), when policymakers held rates steady.
This fresh influx is especially welcome as the economy moves past the government-shutdown data distortions and into the AI-driven disorientation of the moment. Last week’s figures, for example, were more of a Rorschach Test than an economic reality check. Some were cheered by the above-expectations 130,000 payrolls gain and 4.3% jobless rate in December; others harped on the downward revisions to previous months’ payrolls data. January’s CPI rates (2.4% y/y headline, 2.5% core) were widely viewed…
