Global growth accelerates
We expect global economic growth to strengthen in 2026, driven by a renewed global capex cycle, still-accommodative monetary policies, ongoing fiscal support across the US, Europe and China, and a temporary easing in trade tensions. Inflation should remain warm but manageable.
A new geopolitical and economic order
The world continues to shift away from the open-border, efficiency-driven globalisation of the 1990s–2010s toward a regime defined by national interest, strategic rivalry and economic security. The US–China competition will remain central. Both powers are prioritising three domains, AI, defence, and electric power, requiring tighter strategic alliances, currency war, reshoring, and greater control over critical commodities. This backdrop also implies structurally higher sovereign debt, increasingly absorbed via monetary expansion….
