The updating of economic forecast scenarios by the major research centres in recent weeks reflects the fact that the world economy is moving at a higher cruising speed than had been anticipated at the beginning of the year, when «hurricane Trump» was threatening to destabilise an economic environment exposed to the winds of uncertainty. For now, the incipient distortions affecting growth and inflation triggered by the increased tariff barriers are being offset by the AI-driven investment boom in the US, the increase in defence spending (and the acceleration of the NGEU programme) in Europe, the resilience of Chinese exports and the easing of global monetary conditions. To top it all off, the oil price is almost 15% below where it stood at the start of the year and significant wealth has been generated by the rally in global stocks (+17%) and other financial and real assets in 2025…
