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- An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1969.
- The inventor of the famed indicator said it is accurately predicting a downturn this year.
- When the yield curve inverted in November 2022, he said it was a false signal.
Wall Street has ramped up its soft-landing calls for 2024, but a renowned economic expert who popularized the most famous recession indicator in markets says to expect a downturn this year.
Campbell Harvey is a Canadian economist and researcher at Duke University whose work showed that, for decades, an inverted yield curve — that is, when short-term Treasury yields exceed the yield on longer-term government bonds — has preceded as US recession.
Dating back to 1968, the indicator’s predictive power is eight for eight, with zero false signals….
