On Jan. 3, 2022, the S&P 500 index peaked at almost 4,800. It would subsequently close the year with a loss of 20 percent due to high inflation, a tightening Fed, the consequences of the Ukraine war and a faltering China, among other factors. The International Monetary Fund now assumes that one-third of the global economy will experience a recession this year.
Will 2023 be another sad year for stock markets and will the global economy indeed be dealt severe blows?
The U.S. is still the largest economy in the world, Washington is the most important political player, the Fed is the most influential central bank by far and the U.S. financial markets are decisive in terms of what happens worldwide. It, therefore, makes sense to focus on the U.S. political outlook first of all.
Washington will be divided for at least the next two years, in the sense that…
