The International Monetary Fund raised its growth outlook for the first time in a year, saying it sees a “turning point” for the global economy. The risk of a global recession remains, as well as one in the US, but it’s diminishing, the IMF said, thanks in part to resilient American spending and China’s reopening. “The outlook is not worsened this time around, which in itself is good news,” chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said (the IMF cut its 2023 outlook three times last year). Nevertheless, he cautioned that the light at the end of the economic tunnel is still a ways away. The fight against inflation is not yet won, monetary policy will need to remain contractionary and some countries will need to tighten further. “There are still some challenges to get on our way to a sustainable recovery that is broad and long-lasting,” he said.
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